A winter weather mess expected to start tonight and continue into tomorrow

Last updated by Devontae Jackson

Radar at 4:58 p.m. 11-14-18.

We are in for interesting 24 hours. Above is a look at what radar looks like just around 5 p.m. this evening. Green is rain, white and blue is snow, the orange-reddish color is a mix of freezing and sleet, and the pink is a mix of rain and snow. This is the system we will have to deal with starting late tonight.

Future radar at 2 a.m. 11-15-18.

Freezing rain and sleet will move into the area late tonight into tomorrow. Around midnight is when we could see the freezing rain and sleet move into the area. Some ice pellets could mix in as well. Freezing and sleet will last just about all Thursday morning. This will cause for a messy morning commute on Thursday. This could even lead to a sort of dangerous morning commute on untreated roads as well.

Temperatures will play a key role in this. Temperatures will drop below freezing, 32F tonight. Temperatures will be in the upper 20’s overnight. This means any freezing rain, sleet, regular rain, and snow could freeze to the ground on instant contact. We will eventually make it back into the 30’s by mid to late morning Thursday.

Future radar at 7 a.m. 11-15-18.

As said earlier we will make it into the 30’s by mid to late morning Thursday. This will give road crews treating roads tomorrow some help. As the temperatures head into the 30’s tomorrow. The freezing rain and sleet will begin to change over to regular rain. Rain will last just about all afternoon on Thursday.

As we head into the late afternoon hours into the evening. Rain will change over to some snow. Snow will move out by Thursday evening though.

Ice Accumulations (50th Percentile) (11-14-18)
Computer generated ice accumulations.

Alright, let’s talk freezing rain accumulations. So you are looking at the 25th percentile for ice accumulations starting from 7 p.m. tonight through 7 p.m. tomorrow. There are higher percentiles like the 50th. The percentiles are computer generated models for expected ice and snow accumulations. As I was looking at the 50th percentile for ice accumulations, I felt like it was overdoing it. So I decided to go with the 25th percentile. I believe the 25th percentile is still overdoing it a little but it looks slightly more like the actual ice accumulations we could see. So, with that being said, expect ice accumulations from 0.01 of an inch to about 0.20 of an inch of ice.

Computer generated snow accumulations.

Alright, let’s talk snow accumulations. This is the 50th percentile for snow accumulations. This percentile may be overdoing it a little. With the rain involved in this system, expect snow accumulations less than 1 inch.

Winter Weather Advisory

A winter weather advisory has been issued for just about the entire area. Read more about that here: A winter weather advisory has been issued for the area.

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Author: Devontae Jackson

Hello everyone, I am the founder and lead weather forecaster for The Greater Dayton Weather Post! I am a learning meteorologist, weather enthusiast, and weather photographer!

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