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The Storm Prediction Center has placed a marginal risk for severe weather just south of the area. This marginal risk for severe weather does include the Cincinnati metro area. A marginal risk means thunderstorms could become strong. So with us north of Cincinnati and not being in the marginal risk, this means we could see some storms on the borderline of strong. A few stronger thunderstorms can’t be ruled out today into tonight though.
Here is what the numerical models are predicting. This is the HRRR model and it has been doing a good job I would say with predicting where the rain will fall. More rain and possible storms will move into the area later this afternoon into the evening.
Here is a look at the amount of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) in the 180mb layer. I was looking at the CAPE towards the surface and in the 90mb layer and there wasn’t really any CAPE. The model above is showing a little CAPE, around 1,000 J/Kg in the atmosphere. This means we will have a little energy way up in the atmosphere for the development of some t-storms.
The model above is also showing wind shear. Looking at the wind barbs in the model we could be looking at winds up to 76 knots or 86 mph. This means some flights in the area could deal with some turbulence.
I hope you are enjoying the content! I’m still in high school so content is uploaded and updated whenever I get the chance.
Tracking weather for the Greater Dayton area and surrounding communities.