Marginal risk of severe weather off to our south and including the Cincinnati metro area

Last updated by Devontae Jackson

Severe Weather Outlook For Monday, December 31, 2018 – SPC Convective Outlook – Day 1

The Storm Prediction Center has placed a marginal risk for severe weather just south of the area. This marginal risk for severe weather does include the Cincinnati metro area. A marginal risk means thunderstorms could become strong. So with us north of Cincinnati and not being in the marginal risk, this means we could see some storms on the borderline of strong. A few stronger thunderstorms can’t be ruled out today into tonight though.

HRRR Model – Sim Reflectivity – Courtesy of COD Meterology-the College od Dupage (12-31-18)

Here is what the numerical models are predicting. This is the HRRR model and it has been doing a good job I would say with predicting where the rain will fall. More rain and possible storms will move into the area later this afternoon into the evening.

HRRR Model – 180mb CAPE – Courtesy of COD Meterology-the College od Dupage (12-31-18)

Here is a look at the amount of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) in the 180mb layer. I was looking at the CAPE towards the surface and in the 90mb layer and there wasn’t really any CAPE. The model above is showing a little CAPE, around 1,000 J/Kg in the atmosphere. This means we will have a little energy way up in the atmosphere for the development of some t-storms.

The model above is also showing wind shear. Looking at the wind barbs in the model we could be looking at winds up to 76 knots or 86 mph. This means some flights in the area could deal with some turbulence.

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Author: Devontae Jackson

Hello everyone, I am the founder and lead weather forecaster for The Greater Dayton Weather Post! I am a learning meteorologist, weather enthusiast, and weather photographer!

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