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The SPC has already highlighted our area for the possibility of seeing thunderstorms Thursday. We are under a 15% chance of seeing thunderstorms with 25 miles of a point.
Here is a look at the dew point Thursday. The atmosphere will be sort of moist because of that Gulf of Mexico moisture.
Looking at the GFS it does show precipitation entering the area Thursday afternoon. The precipitation then continues into Thursday evening and Friday morning.
Looking at the surface CAPE I’m not seeing much here’s in our area. Especially when we see the precipitation move into the area. Looking at the mid-Level CAPE, which is not shown in this post. It does show some higher CAPE values heading into Thursday evening.
Looking at the low-Level lapse rates, values become higher here in the afternoon on Thursday. So, if we do see any thunderstorms on Thursday. The best chance would be in the afternoon into the evening.
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Tracking weather for the Greater Dayton area and surrounding communities.