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Above is a look at the Weather Prediction Center flash flood guidance outlook. Right now, the majority of the Miami Valley is under a moderate (20% to 50%) risk of seeing flash flooding tonight.
Here is a look at how the HRRR model is handling future rain accumulations. It is showing most of the Miami Valley seeing an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain. This is bad considering most of the area really only needs to see less than 2 or even around 1 inch of rain to see flash flooding occur.
That is why I have gone ahead and put our flooding probability at likely tonight.
At last check, here is what the river observations across the area look like. We do have many rivers in action stage and The Great Miami River around Sidney, OH was in minor flood stage. The river has since gone back down to action stage near Sidney. Over the next 4 days, many rivers are expected to stay in action stage. Remember if you encounter flooding, turn around don’t drown.