Last Updated 4 weeks ago by Devontae Jackson.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the Miami Valley in a marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather tomorrow. A slight risk (2/5) includes parts of the southern Miami Valley. This means we could see some thunderstorms become strong to severe at times tomorrow.
Alright, so here is what we have, we have a trough bringing unstable atmospheric conditions to the area tomorrow. That combined with a low pressure will provide the chance for some wet weather.
We will watch warm air surge into the area tomorrow thanks to the warm front on the north and east side of the low pressure. That will also bring Gulf moisture into the area. On the backside of that low will be a cold front that will provide the lift needed to get storms going.
Here is a look at surface-based CAPE tomorrow. Heading through the lower atmosphere we will also have the energy needed to get thunderstorms going tomorrow.
Alright, so we will get an initial cluster of showers and possible thunderstorms late morning Thursday into the afternoon. From there we could get a lull in the rain. However, a more stronger line/cluster of showers and thunderstorms will move through the area Thursday evening into Friday morning. Looking at forecast soundings, there does appear to be a small threat for tornadoes. The SPC has also outlined our area as having a small chance to see a tornado tomorrow. So while the chance for tornadoes isn’t high it is not low. Also, the more towards Cincinnati you go the better chance there is.
Here is a look at our severe weather hazards for Thursday. Again, the threat for tornadoes is low but not zero. The threat for damaging winds is sitting at a moderate, the chance for hail is very low, and the chance for flooding is low. As the threat of steady to heavy rain will be another concern tomorrow.
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Make sure you know where to go during severe weather and have a safety plan.